You probably already know that URL's "Rookies vs. Vets" event is this Saturday (March 28). If you don't then I can mail you a postcard about it at 321 Under A Rock Rd.
Now, after weeks of hype, the final call is here. It's time to put the chips on the table so we can spin the wheel.
But before I get into individual match-up predictions, some thoughts on the card as a whole.
The concept of "Rookies vs. Vets" is exactly what URL needs right now. Most of the obvious match-ups between top tiers have already happened and talent development has been slower across all of battle rap as most leagues use the same established names rather than trying to build their own roster. After jettisoning much of its PG class last year, this card makes it clear which new emcees it's riding with, and who is riding with URL.
Much has been said of URL's exclusivity contracts, but in an era with so much competition, it makes sense to safeguard the talent you've invested in, and also to provide a product that fans can't get anywhere else.
The RvV theme is still risky though, because all seven battles have essentially the same narrative. The talent involved bring a good variety of styles, but the emcees in the last match-up of the night will need to bring original approaches since the crowd will likely have heard a lot of the same angles throughout the night. Creativity is key.
Apparently the rounds are shorter than the usual URL format, which should hopefully mean tighter writing from the emcees and more enthusiasm from the crowd.
The other crucial factor will be resilience. Most of the rookies haven't performed for a crowd this large before. They're used to battling in small rooms that are half-filled with their own crew to hype up their bars. They've never been booed by 800 fans, but the veterans have. And they've learned to soldier on after a punchline flops or a crowd turns on them.
With reputations on the line this weekend, expect the NYC crowd to be quick to jump on every perceived stumble and too-long pause. Slip-ups happen, but the best rappers are the ones who recover quickly rather than letting it shake them.
So now on to the predictions. I've chosen to avoid the typical format of saying who will win each match-up. Battle rap is too unpredictable and nuanced for that. Instead I'm predicting who has the advantage going into the battle. It doesn't mean they'll win, it doesn't mean they're better; it just means they'll have the momentum when they take the stage.
BattleRap.com will be doing live updates from the event, so follow us on Twitter or check back on the site for a curated article of the best tweets.
T-Top vs. Charlie Clips
The best new battler against the best current battler. Sounds like a recipe for a classic.
Charlie Clips is incredibly versatile and has repeatedly proven that he can move any crowd, but with his near-legendary performance against T-Rex, he showed that he keeps a little extra in the reserve tank for his NYC battles.
After several months off, he'll be well-rested, well-prepared and eager to remind fans that he's the top active battler in the world right now (even if he did lose to Charron).
T-Top is the most popular up-and-comer in any league right now, with his battles doing heavy numbers on YouTube. It's justified too — the power he displayed winning BET's "Ultimate Freestyle Friday" tournament rightfully got people's attention. This battle is his chance to show his doubters that he has the presence to thrive on the main stage, and that he's got more to talk about than selling drugs.
The only concern here is that the battle won't live up to the impossibly high hopes people have for it.
Advantage: Charlie Clips
Brizz Rawsteen vs. Aye Verb
North Carolina's Brizz Rawsteen has been another standout rookie, and he built his buzz on the back of some terrific battles.
Aye Verb is a certified legend but has been inconsistent with his performances lately, though admittedly those are mostly outside of URL. One thing has remained constant though: he is exceptionally skilled at talking shit to rookies. In radio interviews and Twitter updates, he always manages to make someone look foolish.
That's what could make the difference in this battle: Verb clowning hard on the much more serious Brizz. If Brizz isn't able to loosen up in front of the supremely smooth Aye Verb, it could hurt him.
That being said, Aye Verb is apparently going by the name "Verb Von Doom" now, which should give Brizz at least a round's worth of solid-gold comedic material.
Advantage: Aye Verb
Chess vs. DNA
This is my pick for dark horse battle of the night. It's the best style match-up on the card, with both emcees bringing a similar brand of aggression and intensity. Their interaction at a recent URL one-off was a taste of what we can expect here.
As a teenager, Chess is around the same age DNA was when he first started in the scene, which adds to the parallels. When the two of them face off, it's like they'll be looking into a funhouse mirror that warps reality by seven years and about 50 battles.
DNA is (perhaps surprisingly) the most-viewed veteran on the card, and has a history of turning up against PGs. That's enough to give him the advantage here.
Advantage: DNA
Prep vs. John John Da Don
John John has a busy schedule in March, and is actually supposed to be battling twice on Saturday — first in New York, and then later in California. So far the only people I've seen with faith that he'll actually make it to Cali are the people who booked him, but if the stars do align and he bodies two rookies on two coasts on the same day then it'll be pretty legendary.
That said, this battle with Prep should be a good one. The two have been taking shots at each other on Twitter for a minute now and they both seem hugely confident going into it.
John John has felt the sting of an unreceptive (and occasionally hostile) NYC crowd before and still managed to get through it. For that reason, I'll edge the advantage to him.
Advantage: John John Da Don
Sno vs. Real Deal
This battle was originally scheduled for the "Summer Madness 4" warm-up card but fell through. Real Deal burned out late last year after taking so many battles and prepping hard for all of them. He hasn't battled since "Ether" last December (where he took a clear L to Illmaculate) so he should be recharged and wanting to avenge that performance.
Sno's no slouch though, and actually has more battles on his resume than at least one of the vets. This is the biggest live crowd he'll have battled in front of though, so the question will be whether the intensity he brings to his small-room performances will transfer to the main stage.
Advantage: Real Deal
Th3 Saga vs. Shotgun Suge
Th3 Saga is the rookie with the fewest on-camera battles on this card and of those six performances, his worst loss was at the hands of T-Top. That could mean that Suge's similar combination of rawness and aggression will lead to the same outcome. It could also mean that Th3 Saga's studied those game tapes enough to have developed a sounder strategy this time around.
Both guys are coming off strong battles. Against Prep, Th3 Saga showed that he's a threat in a surprisingly popular battle that has done almost 250,000 views in less than a month. Suge did well in a one-rounder against a local guy in the Traphouse league, but it's only done a tenth of the views in the same time.
My guess is that URL fans will be rooting for the new guy who impressed them, but that Suge can steal the momentum if he comes aggressive enough. Suge's really good at being disrespectful and Saga's Christian beliefs give him new ground to cover.
Advantage: Th3 Saga
Mr. Wavy vs. K-Shine
If this battle looks anything like the faceoff did, Shine's energy will carry him to victory. When the Harlem emcee has the crowd on his side and gets rolling the way he did against DNA or JC, there's really no stopping him.
Still, he did spend most of the faceoff saying he didn't even know who Wavy was, and if his approach at the event is as impersonal, it leaves him open to a targeted breakdown. Mr. Wavy brought bar-heavy content to his two URL performances and the crowd ate it up so we'll see if he can repeat against an established name. With Qleen Paper no-showing against him at SM4's warm-up event, Wavy has been sidelined for more than a year and should have tons of fire saved up.
Advantage: K-Shine
Final Predictions
This event will show us which newcomers are ready to hang, and which vets are still able to hang. Every emcee on the card has had a standout performance. Some have even been legendary. But in 2014, most of these vets were inconsistent — taking losses, putting on mediocre performances or oversaturating themselves with too many battles. They have just as much to prove as the rookies do.
But that's what makes this event so much fun. Anyone can die.
As awesome as "Summer Madness 4" was, not much had changed in the battle rap landscape when it was over. In some ways, it felt a bit like the end of a sitcom episode where everything resets to how it was at the start. That won't happen with "Rookies vs. Vets" though.
A rookie will launch his career.
A vet will lose and get roasted for months.
Things. Will. Change.
Don't believe me?
This rookie vs vets could end a lot of shit or be the beginning of sumthing new
— Mook. (@MurdaMookez) March 11, 2015
Oh, and Jack Thriller vs. Smack White will be battle of the year.
What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments below.
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